The Trading Desk
EUR/AUD sits at 1.63075 as European trade gets under way on Tuesday, perched just beneath a cluster of intraday highs and consolidating after a modest recovery from the session lows printed overnight. The daily chart tells a clear directional story: this pair has been in a controlled, grinding descent since late June when price was trading comfortably above 1.6600. That move lower has shed roughly 370 pips over the course of a month, and the character of the selling — a series of lower highs and lower lows with limited corrective conviction — keeps the desk's read firmly bearish.
The structure story is straightforward. The prior reaction zone around 1.6500 capped multiple attempts at recovery through early-to-mid July, and once price broke decisively beneath it the level flipped to overhead supply. A secondary resistance cluster has since formed near 1.6340, which aligns with a zone that attracted three separate reactions and now represents the more immediate ceiling for any intraday bounce. To the downside, the next meaningful prior reaction zone sits around 1.6204, with a further cluster just beneath at 1.6189 — these two levels form a layered support band that would likely come into focus should the current bearish momentum extend.
The H1 picture over the past 24 hours shows price spending the bulk of overnight Asian and early European hours compressing in a tight range between roughly 1.6252 and 1.6280. The move into the London afternoon session has lifted the pair back toward 1.6308–1.6319, but the hourly candles lack impulsive character — the recovery looks corrective rather than structural. The 1.6340 resistance zone is the level to watch on any continued grind higher; a failure to clear it with conviction would reinforce the view that the broader trend remains intact.
The calendar is the dominant consideration for today's session. Australian CPI data — headline month-on-month, year-on-year, and the trimmed mean — drops at 21:30 UTC, and all three carry high-impact designations. This is arguably the most significant near-term catalyst for AUD pairs. A hotter-than-expected print would likely strengthen the Australian dollar and apply fresh downside pressure to EUR/AUD, potentially opening a path toward the 1.6200 support band. A softer reading could provide the AUD with a headwind and allow the pair to test the 1.6340 resistance zone more meaningfully. The EUR-side calendar — Spanish unemployment and the Bundesbank monthly report — is unlikely to generate significant volatility.
What would change the bearish read? A daily close back above the 1.6340 prior reaction zone on convincing volume would begin to challenge the sequence of lower highs that has defined this move. A sustained push through 1.6500 would materially alter the structural picture. Until either of those conditions are met, the path of least resistance on the daily chart continues to point toward the lower support cluster.
This is editorial analysis, not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.