The Trading Desk
EUR/USD is trading at 1.13648 as the London session progresses on Monday, sitting near the lower boundary of a range that has dominated price action for the better part of a month. The daily chart tells a story of a pair that peaked in mid-July and has been grinding steadily lower ever since, with sellers now firmly in control of the near-term narrative.
The structure story is reasonably clear. EUR/USD put in a daily high of 1.14818 on 15 July — a level that now stands as the most recent swing high — before a series of lower closes began to erode the bullish momentum that had characterised much of late June and early July. The move from that high has been methodical rather than violent, with each attempted recovery finding fresh supply. The cluster of resistance zones identified between 1.14365 and 1.14461 proved particularly significant; price spent several sessions consolidating beneath and around those levels before ultimately failing to reclaim them, and the subsequent drift lower through the 1.1380s and into the current 1.1360s area reflects that structural deterioration. The prior reaction zone at 1.14827 now sits well overhead as a secondary cap, while the more immediate ceiling is the 1.14365–1.14461 band — a zone that has registered multiple touches and now represents the level whose recapture would materially challenge the bearish read.
On the H1 chart, the picture is equally constructive for the downside scenario. The overnight session saw a clean continuation lower from the 1.1400 area, with price printing a fresh intraday low of 1.13620 in the most recent hour. There has been no meaningful bounce — each attempted recovery has stalled within a tight range, and the hourly closes have consistently failed to build above 1.1380. The market is compressing near session lows, which in the context of the prevailing daily trend tends to favour continuation rather than reversal.
Today's calendar is modest in terms of headline risk, though not entirely without teeth. The CB Consumer Confidence print at 10:00 UTC carries medium-impact designation and could generate a short burst of USD volatility depending on whether the reading surprises relative to expectations. A notably stronger-than-expected figure would add fuel to the existing bearish EUR/USD scenario, while a significant miss could prompt a corrective bounce. The earlier EUR-side releases — Spanish unemployment and the Bundesbank monthly report — are unlikely to move the needle materially.
What would change the read? A sustained hourly close back above the 1.1400 area would begin to question the momentum, and any daily close above the 1.14365 prior reaction zone would meaningfully undermine the current bearish structure. Until price demonstrates the capacity to reclaim that band on a closing basis, the path of least resistance on the daily chart continues to point lower.
This is editorial analysis, not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.